ISSUE 4 - How influential are mayoral endorsements?
This is going to be one of my ‘deep dives’ into one specific topic as opposed to my usual newsletters where I provide updates on municipal elections and local government antics around the country and beyond.
During the federal election campaign, I noticed that while one mayor was very neutral in her position on the various parties, another was forcefully endorsing one political party and the local candidate which I believe contributed to the eventual outcome.
Mississauga is usually a frequent stop for party leaders during election campaigns. Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives’ Erin O’Toole visited the area in order to rally the troops and build momentum. But Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie played a very diplomatic role by staying very neutral, only doing election advocacy events such as “Mississauga Matters”.
It’s also the sixth largest municipality in Canada with six ridings and if you combine that with neighbouring Brampton’s five ridings, then Peel Region is a seat rich prize with 11 seats up for grabs. Like many of the fast growing urban and suburban areas of the country, transit, housing and social service needs are always on top of mind for residents.
With that many seats in play, it would have been interesting if Crombie did something like, say, an endorsement of the incumbent Liberal government but a personal endorsement for Conservative Michael Ras, who was probably the best candidate the Tories had in an opportunity for stealing a seat from the Liberal fortress in Mississauga.
Having five out of six seats wouldn’t budge the Liberal hegemony; it would have added an alternative viewpoint on what the city’s priorities are or should be. This was the situation before in 2008 to 2011, but that was when the Conservative government had only one MP elected in Mississauga while all the rest were in the then opposition Liberal caucus.
Crombie’s predecessor, Hazel McCallion, wasn’t shy about letting people know who she supported although she did more of this after she left office. The iconic former mayor’s blessing for an aspiring politician is something I previously covered for this online publication, when a council candidate made the pilgrimage to McCallion’s home seeking her approval, to the chagrin of an opponent.
When I tracked Hazel’s history of endorsing candidates from other levels of government, she’s usually quite successful. Ask Justin Trudeau, Crombie herself, former premier Kathleen Wynne in 2014, Doug Ford and Carolyn Parrish, the former MP and city councillor who lost one reelection bid in 2010 after McCallion cut a robocall for her opponent on the last day of the campaign, which Parrish herself admitted to turning the tide against her.
But while Crombie stayed relatively quiet, Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti went all in for the Liberals. During a campaign stop in the riding of Markham-Unionville, Scarpitti didn’t mince words about his support for the party’s local candidate, former police officer Paul Chiang.
In contrast to the six seats in Mississauga, Markham really has only two seats in the city proper; Markham-Stouffville is shared between the city and the rural community of Stouffville. The Unionville riding has an estimated 123,000 residents and stretches from Highway 407 in the south all the way to the city limits in the north, meaning this riding covers a large swath of the city.
Since 2015 it has been held by the Conservative Bob Saroya. But on election night 2021, Chiang snagged it for the Liberals by 3,000 votes.
You could factor in a number of factors pertaining to the national campaign, or even allegations of outside actors heavily targeting the Chinese Canadians with “misinformation” about the Tories’ stance towards China. But I have to wonder if the endorsement from Scarpitti, who has been mayor since 2006, heavily factored in as well.
As Mayor Scarpitti argued in his fiery speech, Saroya did next to nothing for Markham during his six year stint in Ottawa, accused of spreading lies about Chiang wanting to install a safe injection site on Main Street Unionville. The mayor also chastised Saroya for attending a rally protesting the presence of Syrian refugees.
In conclusion, we see two situations unfold where one mayor’s relative silence yielded expected electoral results in Mississauga, as the city and Peel Region has been trending Liberal red for years. In Markham the mayor’s rather forceful endorsement, combined with extraneous factors, led to the incumbent Conservatives losing the seat.
Canadian mayors may have limited powers under our constitutional structure but they still have that bully pulpit at their disposal. As you can see, that bully pulpit has some influence when wielded properly.
Cover photo courtesy of Samantha Craggs (@SamCraggsCBC)
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